The 2025 Belarusian Presidential Election: A Sham in the Shadows of Authoritarianism
On January 26, 2025, Belarus held a presidential election that has been universally condemned by the international community as a sham. Alexander Lukashenko, often dubbed "Europe’s Last Dictator," has been in power since 1994, and this election marks his seventh consecutive term as the leader of Belarus. The election process and its outcomes are steeped in controversy, reflecting the deeper political and social tensions within the country.
Latest Developments
The 2025 presidential election was scheduled six months earlier than legally required, a move seen by many as a strategic attempt by Lukashenko to prevent large-scale protests and consolidate his power. This decision follows the tumultuous 2020 presidential election, which was marred by mass protests, widespread arrests, and allegations of vote-rigging. The 2020 election saw over 65,000 people arrested, and key opposition figures, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, were either imprisoned or forced into exile[2][3].
In the lead-up to the 2025 election, Belarusian authorities intensified their crackdown on dissent. The Viasna Human Rights Centre reported a wave of arrests, with over a hundred people detained in a single week, many linked to online activities. This repression is part of a broader pattern of silencing opposition voices, with independent media banned and all leading opposition figures either jailed or exiled. The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Belarus approved the calendar plan of events for the election, but this process was heavily criticized for lacking transparency and fairness[1][3].
Key Facts and Analysis
Incumbent President and Government
Alexander Lukashenko's campaign was characterized by slogans such as "Peace and security," emphasizing his role in saving Belarus from being drawn into war. However, this narrative is contradicted by his close alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus's involvement in supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Lukashenko has also restored Soviet-style controls on the economy and discouraged the use of the Belarusian language in favor of Russian, a move that has been seen as an attempt to erase national identity and maintain a tight grip on power[2].
The government's repressive measures have been a hallmark of Lukashenko's rule. Arbitrary detentions, torture, and the criminalization of critical speech are common tools used to suppress dissent. Lukashenko has defended these actions, stating that prison is "for people who opened their mouths too wide, to put it bluntly, those who broke the law." This rhetoric underscores the regime's disdain for democratic principles and human rights[3].
Opposition and International Community
The opposition has vehemently rejected the legitimacy of the election, labeling it a "farce" and a "sham." Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled opposition leader, called the election "a senseless farce, a Lukashenko ritual," and urged voters to cross off everyone on the ballot. She also appealed to world leaders not to recognize the result, emphasizing that the election was held in a country where all independent media and opposition parties have been destroyed. Tsikhanouskaya's efforts are part of a broader strategy to mobilize international support and expose the regime’s human rights violations[4].
The European Union (EU) and other international bodies have echoed the opposition's sentiments, refusing to recognize the election's legitimacy. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the election as a "blatant affront to democracy," and the EU has threatened new sanctions in response. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada have also refused to recognize the results, further isolating Lukashenko's regime on the global stage[2][4].
Electoral Process and Human Rights
The electoral process in Belarus has been heavily criticized for lacking any semblance of democracy. The election commissions are composed of loyalists to Lukashenko, and there are no provisions for independent observation or parallel vote counting. Early voting, which began on January 21, created fertile ground for irregularities, and internet issues were reported, allegedly due to government blocking of VPN services. This manipulation of the electoral process ensures that the outcome is predetermined, with Lukashenko’s victory all but certain[2].
The human rights situation in Belarus remains dire. Over 1,300 political prisoners are currently detained, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. The authorities have intensified repression in the lead-up to the election, targeting dissenting individuals and groups across all sections of society. Reporters Without Borders has filed a complaint against Lukashenko with the International Criminal Court over his crackdown on free speech, which has seen 397 journalists arrested since 2020. This relentless suppression of dissent has created a climate of fear, where citizens are afraid to speak out, make phone calls, or even think out loud[4].
Candidates and the Election Campaign
The election saw five candidates on the ballot, but all were either loyal to Lukashenko or lacked any real opposition credentials. Alexander Lukashenko’s candidacy was submitted by an initiative group and accepted by the CEC on October 29, 2024. Other candidates included Oleg Gaidukevich of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sergei Syrankov of the Communist Party, Hanna Kanapatskaya, an independent candidate, and Alexander Khizhnyak of the Republican Party of Labour and Justice. However, none of these candidates posed a genuine challenge to Lukashenko’s rule, and their participation was seen as a mere formality to legitimize the election process[4].
Expert Perspectives
"The trauma of the 2020 protests was so deep that Lukashenko this time decided not to take risks and opted for the most reliable option when balloting looks more like a special operation to retain power than an election," said Valery Karbalevich, a Belarusian political analyst. This perspective highlights Lukashenko’s strategic approach to maintaining power, which involves minimizing any potential for opposition mobilization[4].
Lukashenko’s strategy to consolidate power is clear, but the long-term implications of such actions are complex. Artyom Shraybman, a Belarus expert with the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Centre, noted that Lukashenko plans to use the pardons and his election win to try and ease his total dependence on Russia and start a conversation with the West about easing sanctions. However, this approach is unlikely to change the fundamental nature of his regime, which is deeply entrenched in authoritarianism[3].
Future Implications
Consolidation of Power and Continued Repression
Lukashenko’s early election strategy is designed to prevent opposition mobilization, especially given the economic troubles and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The regime is likely to continue its repressive measures against dissent, maintaining a climate of fear and silencing any opposition. This approach ensures that Lukashenko remains in power, but it also exacerbates the country’s isolation and economic woes. The economic situation in Belarus is precarious, with the country heavily dependent on Russian support. This dependency further complicates any potential for democratic reforms or opposition movements[2].
International Pressure and Opposition Strategies
The international community, particularly the EU, is expected to continue applying pressure and sanctions on the Belarusian regime. The EU has provided significant financial support to civil society in Belarus, totaling €170 million since 2020, and is likely to continue this support to advocate for free and fair elections and the release of political prisoners. The opposition will likely continue to expose the regime’s human rights violations, mobilize Belarusians through creative resistance, and lobby for stronger international support. While the current election has been designed to minimize public dissent, future economic or political crises could still trigger significant protests and challenges to Lukashenko’s rule[1].
Exiled Belarusians, such as Lesia Pcholka, a photography artist and archivist, and Uladzimir Hramovich, an artist who was imprisoned and later exiled, continue to voice their discontent and frustration. Pcholka’s work, which juxtaposes images of the 2020 protests in Belarus with those of the 2019/2020 protests in Hong Kong, highlights the global struggle for democracy and freedom. Hramovich’s experiences reflect the personal costs of dissent in Belarus, where individuals are forced to flee their homeland to escape persecution[3].
The Role of Russia
Lukashenko’s close alliance with Russia is a critical factor in his ability to maintain power. Russia’s support has been instrumental in suppressing opposition movements and ensuring the regime’s stability. However, this alliance also comes with its own set of challenges, as Belarus’s dependence on Russia limits its sovereignty and exacerbates its economic vulnerabilities. The Union State of Russia and Belarus, which allows for free movement and cooperation between the two countries, further solidifies Lukashenko’s ties to Putin and reinforces the authoritarian nature of his regime[5].
Human Rights and Civil Society
The human rights situation in Belarus is dire, with widespread reports of torture, arbitrary detentions, and the suppression of free speech. The Viasna Human Rights Centre has been at the forefront of documenting these abuses and advocating for the rights of political prisoners. However, the centre itself has faced significant repression, with many of its members arrested or forced into exile. This relentless crackdown on civil society organizations underscores the regime’s fear of any form of dissent or opposition[3].
Conclusion
The 2025 Belarusian presidential election marks another milestone in Alexander Lukashenko’s long and contentious rule. The election, widely seen as a sham, reflects the deep-seated issues of repression, lack of democratic processes, and international isolation that plague Belarus. As the international community continues to condemn these actions and impose sanctions, the future of Belarus remains uncertain.
The opposition’s resolve to continue their fight for democracy and human rights, despite the daunting challenges, offers a glimmer of hope for a more democratic future. However, for now, Lukashenko’s grip on power remains firm, sustained by his alliance with Russia and his willingness to suppress any form of dissent. The ongoing struggle between the regime and the opposition is a testament to the enduring spirit of the Belarusian people, who continue to aspire for a free and democratic society despite the overwhelming odds against them.
In the words of Andrei Gnyot, a Belarusian journalist and activist, "Lukashenko hasn’t just seized power—he’s holding his people hostage." This poignant statement captures the essence of the current situation in Belarus, where the regime’s authoritarian grip has stifled any semblance of democracy and freedom. As the world watches, it is clear that the struggle for Belarus’s future is far from over, and the path ahead will be marked by continued resistance, repression, and the unwavering hope for a better tomorrow[3].
