The Presidential Election in Belarus: A Continuation of Authoritarian Rule
The presidential election in Belarus, scheduled for January 26, 2025, marks another significant milestone in the long-standing authoritarian rule of Alexander Lukashenko. Since his first election in 1994, Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on power, suppressing dissent and ensuring that electoral processes are heavily controlled. This article delves into the political context, key stakeholder positions, policy implications, public reaction, and the potential future scenarios arising from this election.
Latest Developments
The upcoming presidential election in Belarus has been characterized by a series of strategic moves by the Lukashenko regime to ensure its continued dominance. The election date was approved by the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus on October 23, 2024, and is set for January 26, 2025, with early voting taking place from January 21 to 25, 2025[1][4][5].
Lukashenko's decision to advance the election date from August to January is widely seen as a tactical move to avoid potential protests in the warmer months. This strategy is part of a broader effort to maintain control and suppress any form of dissent. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has already rejected several opposition candidates, further limiting the scope for genuine electoral competition. This move aligns with the regime's historical pattern of manipulating electoral processes to secure Lukashenko's re-election[2][3].
Early Voting and Electoral Process
The electoral process in Belarus is tightly controlled, with the CEC overseeing all aspects of the election. Early voting, which will run from January 21 to 25, is a mechanism often criticized for allowing the regime to manipulate the vote count. Early voting can be particularly problematic as it allows for the collection of votes in controlled environments such as workplaces, universities, and military bases, where voters may feel pressured to vote in a certain way. The absence of credible domestic or international election observers further undermines the legitimacy of the election, as these observers are crucial for ensuring transparency and fairness in the electoral process[1][3][5].
Key Facts and Analysis
Lukashenko's Rule
Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, making him one of the longest-serving leaders in Europe. His rule has been characterized by authoritarian governance, suppression of dissent, and a strong alliance with Russia. Lukashenko's power was significantly bolstered in 1996 when he persuaded voters to approve a new constitution that gave him sweeping additional powers, including the right to prolong his term in office and to rule by decree. This constitutional amendment marked a turning point in his consolidation of power and has since been used to justify his extended rule[4].
Previous Elections
The 2020 presidential election was a pivotal moment in Belarus's recent history, marked by widespread allegations of vote-rigging and a subsequent crackdown on protests. Lukashenko was declared the winner with 80% of the vote, a result widely criticized as fraudulent. The aftermath saw massive protests and a brutal suppression of dissent, leading to the imprisonment of thousands of protesters and the exile of key opposition figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. This period was marked by one of the largest and most sustained protest movements in Belarus's history, highlighting the deep-seated dissatisfaction with Lukashenko's rule among a significant portion of the population[2][3][5].
Constitutional Framework
The president of Belarus is directly elected for a five-year term, with the election required to take place on a Sunday no later than two months before the expiration of the incumbent president's term. This framework, while seemingly democratic, has been manipulated to ensure Lukashenko's continued rule. The CEC's control over the electoral process, the rejection of opposition candidates, and the lack of independent media and free speech have rendered the elections far from free and fair. The constitution, which was intended to provide a framework for democratic governance, has instead been used as a tool to consolidate Lukashenko's power[1][4].
Expert Perspectives
The upcoming election has drawn significant criticism from international observers and human rights organizations. Ryszard Petru, the Parliamentary Assembly’s General Rapporteur for a Democratic Belarus, has stated:
“The so-called presidential elections arranged in Belarus for 26 January 2025 are set to be a sham that, again, deny the right of the Belarusian people to participate in free and fair elections... An election held under such oppressive conditions – marked by the absence of freedoms of speech, assembly and association, the lack of credible domestic or international election observations, and the absence of a transparent vote-counting process – cannot and will not meet international recognised standards of fairness and legitimacy.”
This sentiment is echoed by Viktoria Leukavets, a research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, who notes that the Lukashenko regime employs various strategies to secure its dominance and maintain control over the electoral process. These strategies include a significant crackdown on dissent, the militarization of everyday life, and the selective release of political prisoners to improve the regime's international image. Leukavets also highlights the regime's use of propaganda and disinformation to shape public opinion and suppress opposition voices[2].
Human Rights and Repression
The Lukashenko regime has been criticized for its severe human rights abuses, particularly in the context of political repression. The 2020 election and its aftermath saw a dramatic escalation in human rights violations, with thousands arrested, beaten, and imprisoned. Human rights activists, such as those from Amnesty International, have documented a "suffocating climate of fear" created by the authorities, which silences anyone who challenges the government. The regime's actions have led to the imprisonment of prominent figures, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, and the exile of many others[3].
Future Implications
Continued Authoritarian Rule
Given the controlled nature of the election and the absence of genuine opposition, Lukashenko is all but certain to win the election and extend his rule. This will likely result in continued authoritarian governance and the suppression of dissent. The regime's tactics, including the use of police forces, internal troops, and special units to stifle opposition activities, will continue to create an atmosphere of fear and surveillance. The ongoing repression is expected to further erode the already limited political freedoms in Belarus[2][3].
Potential for Future Protests
Although the immediate risk of large-scale protests is mitigated by the winter timing of the election, future protests could still occur, especially if economic conditions worsen or if there is a significant shift in public sentiment. The opposition, though currently muted by fear and repression, may find opportunities to mobilize in the future, potentially leading to renewed calls for democratic reforms. Economic factors, such as rising unemployment or inflation, could serve as catalysts for future unrest, as they have in the past[2][3].
International Isolation
Belarus may face increased international isolation and sanctions due to the non-recognition of the election by Western countries. This could exacerbate economic challenges and further strain relations with the West. The European Parliament has already called for the EU to refuse to recognize Lukashenko as president after the vote, indicating a strong stance against the legitimacy of the election. Such international pressure could lead to economic sanctions, which would have significant implications for Belarus's economy, already heavily dependent on Russian subsidies and support[3][4].
Opposition in Exile
The opposition, led by figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, may continue to operate in exile, potentially organizing future resistance or seeking international support to challenge Lukashenko's rule. Tsikhanouskaya and other opposition leaders have called the upcoming election a "sham" and urged Belarusians and the international community to reject it, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic principles in Belarus. The opposition's efforts in exile could involve lobbying for international support, mobilizing diaspora communities, and coordinating with other democratic movements in the region[3][4].
Military and Foreign Policy Implications
Lukashenko's continued rule also has significant implications for Belarus's foreign policy and military alliances. Belarus remains closely aligned with Russia, and Lukashenko's decisions have often been influenced by his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The use of Belarusian territory for Russian military operations, including the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has further solidified this alliance. This close relationship with Russia is likely to continue, with Belarus potentially hosting more Russian military assets and participating in joint military exercises. However, this alliance also comes with risks, as Belarus's involvement in regional conflicts could lead to increased international scrutiny and potential economic repercussions[3][4].
Public Reaction
The public reaction to the upcoming election is marked by a mix of resignation, fear, and defiance. Many Belarusians are aware of the election's predetermined outcome and the lack of genuine electoral competition. This awareness has led to a sense of disillusionment with the political process, with some choosing to boycott the election altogether. Others, however, continue to express their dissent through various forms of resistance, including online activism, small-scale protests, and support for opposition figures in exile.
The fear of repression is a significant factor influencing public behavior. The regime's brutal crackdown on protests in 2020 has created a climate of fear, where many are hesitant to express their political views openly. Human rights activists and opposition figures have reported widespread surveillance and intimidation, further silencing potential dissenters[3].
Conclusion
The 2025 presidential election in Belarus is a stark reminder of the enduring authoritarian rule of Alexander Lukashenko. With a tightly controlled electoral process, suppressed dissent, and international criticism, this election is set to be another formality in Lukashenko's long reign. As the international community stands in solidarity with the Belarusian people, the future remains uncertain, with potential for continued repression, future protests, and increased international isolation.
The struggle for democratic reforms in Belarus is far from over, and the outcome of this election will only serve to underscore the need for continued vigilance and support for those seeking a more democratic future. The international community's response, including potential sanctions and diplomatic pressure, will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of Belarusian politics. For the people of Belarus, the hope for a more democratic and free society remains, even in the face of overwhelming odds.
