The Recent Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hamas: A Fragile Step Towards Alleviating the Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
On January 15, 2025, a significant, though fragile, ceasefire agreement was announced between Israel and Hamas, marking the first major pause in hostilities since the conflict escalated in October 2023. This multi-phased and gradual deal includes a hostage/prisoner exchange and is a critical step towards alleviating the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Latest Developments
The ceasefire agreement, which began its implementation on January 19, 2025, is a complex and delicate arrangement. Despite the announcement, Israel escalated military attacks on Gaza targets the day before, resulting in over 100 Palestinian deaths and more than 260 injuries. This escalation underscores the deep-seated mistrust and ongoing tensions between the two sides[1].
The agreement itself is structured in three phases. In the initial phase, Hamas is to release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, the elderly, and severe humanitarian cases, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners by Israel. This includes more than 200 Palestinians sentenced to life in prison for murder in the context of terrorism. Additionally, Israel has agreed to begin withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor, a military position that bifurcates the Gaza Strip, and to maintain a security buffer zone along the perimeter of Gaza. However, Israel will not fully withdraw from Gaza in the first phase, a point of contention for Hamas which demands a full Israeli withdrawal[1].
In the second phase, Hamas is slated to free the remaining male hostages, while Israel will continue its withdrawal from Gaza. The third phase would include the return of deceased hostages and the beginning of reconstruction efforts. This phased approach is designed to build trust and ensure the gradual de-escalation of tensions, but it also leaves room for potential breakdowns if any of the conditions are not met[1].
Key Facts and Analysis
The conflict in Gaza has resulted in catastrophic consequences for its population. Over 47,000 Palestinians have been killed, and more than 111,000 have been injured between October 7, 2023, and January 22, 2025. Approximately 90% of Gaza's population has been displaced, with many displaced multiple times. The infrastructure destruction is equally devastating, with over 60% of residential buildings and 80% of commercial facilities damaged or destroyed. Nearly all schools and universities have been destroyed or significantly damaged[5].
The health crisis in Gaza is acute, with only half of the 36 hospitals remaining partially operational and just 38% of primary health care centers functional. An estimated 25% of the injured, around 30,000 people, face life-changing injuries and need ongoing rehabilitation. The lack of medical supplies, equipment, and personnel has exacerbated the health crisis, making it one of the most pressing issues in the aftermath of the conflict[3].
The humanitarian needs in Gaza are immense. The entire population requires humanitarian assistance, with critical services like water, power, and fuel supplies cut off or disrupted. Over 1.9 million people face crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity. The destruction of basic services such as water and energy systems, wastewater treatment systems, and medical facilities has left the population without access to clean water or treated sewage, increasing the risk of waterborne illnesses[3].
Expert Perspectives
The reaction from experts and humanitarian organizations highlights the complexity and challenges of the situation.
Natan Sachs, an expert from the Brookings Institution, emphasized the immediate benefits of the ceasefire: "The humanitarian need in Gaza today is enormous and acute. The deal immediately allows for two important things: first, a pause, at least, to hostilities, and second, the surge of aid into Gaza, which could be distributed more safely if hostilities are indeed paused"[1].
Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, underscored the urgency of the situation: "The ceasefire is bitterly overdue and does not begin to repair the shattered lives of Palestinians or heal their trauma. It is crucial that Israel complies with its legal obligations and allows lifesaving supplies to reach Gaza"[5].
Jon B. Alterman, Middle East Program director at CSIS, noted the challenges ahead: "The deal also backloads the release of hostages, with 14 of the 33 hostages scheduled to be released during the last week of the deal. The political headwinds for the deal could change significantly in that intervening time. It’s one thing when the hostages being released are in good health, but the deal could break down quickly if hostages are either in poor health or dead"[2].
Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, highlighted the broader implications: "The war has widened the gap over the prospect of a two-state solution... The reality is that Hamas is battered and much of the group’s leadership has long sought an end to the conflict. In Israel, the Netanyahu government is also unlikely to break the ceasefire. However, the reconstruction of Gaza, the security of Israel, and the future of normalization all remain unclear"[1].
Future Implications
The sustainability of the ceasefire and the reconstruction efforts in Gaza are fraught with challenges. The deal lacks solid commitments for a permanent ceasefire, raising concerns about its long-term viability. Ensuring a long-term ceasefire will be essential for stabilizing the region and improving living conditions in Gaza.
Reconstruction efforts will require substantial investment and commitment from the international community. The rebuilding of homes, hospitals, schools, and other critical infrastructure is a daunting task, especially given the current state of Gaza's infrastructure. The environmental impact of the war, including soil, water, and air pollution, adds another layer of complexity to the reconstruction process. The debris left behind by the destruction contains high levels of asbestos, lead, and other hazardous substances, along with unexploded ordnances, posing significant challenges for future rebuilding[3].
The recent heavy rains and flooding in Gaza have further exacerbated the living conditions, overwhelming displacement sites and makeshift shelters. This has led to deaths from hypothermia, including infants, and highlights the urgent need for better shelter support and infrastructure. International organizations, such as Clean Shelter, an NGO based in Germany, are working to provide emergency relief services, including sanitation, clean drinking water, and shelter, in an inclusive and sustainable manner[3].
Governance and Security Challenges
One of the most critical challenges ahead is defining the long-term governance and security in Gaza. Hamas wants complete and total withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and a permanent end to hostilities. However, Israel still sees Gaza as a security issue that will require a military presence. The absence of a reliable partner for peace or stability who can administer Gaza effectively poses a significant hurdle. If Hamas and the Palestinian people in Gaza reject a security force and governing authority, it could lead to a protracted insurgency in Gaza, complicating the reconstruction efforts and the overall stability of the region[1].
International Community's Role
The international community plays a crucial role in supporting the ceasefire and reconstruction efforts. The United States, in particular, has been instrumental in mediating the deal, with both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration working together to secure the agreement. This bipartisan approach demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a peaceful resolution in the region[1].
However, the international community must go beyond just mediating agreements; it must also provide substantial financial and logistical support for the reconstruction of Gaza. This includes funding for the rebuilding of infrastructure, provision of humanitarian aid, and support for sustainable governance and security arrangements.
Conclusion
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is a critical step, but it is only the beginning of a long and arduous process. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza demands immediate and sustained attention from the international community. Ensuring systematic access to Gaza for humanitarian aid, lifting restrictions on lifesaving supplies, and facilitating urgent repairs to medical facilities and other vital infrastructure are imperative.
As Natan Sachs pointed out, "The actual recovery of the Gaza Strip and its population will demand an enormous influx of financing and also responsible governance. Large amounts of funding will not be enough. There were already large amounts of funds entering Gaza over the years before this war, but civilians—long immiserated by the Israeli-Egyptian blockade and Hamas’ rule—benefitted little from it, even while Hamas was building its war effort and underground infrastructure"[1].
The future of Gaza and the stability of the region depend on the successful implementation of this ceasefire and the commitment of all parties involved to a lasting peace. It requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the humanitarian, governance, and security challenges in a sustainable and equitable manner. Only through such a multifaceted effort can the cycle of violence be broken, and a path towards peace and reconstruction be forged.
