Political Context and Background
The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023, with a surprise attack by Hamas, has lasted over 400 days, resulting in one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history, particularly in the Gaza Strip. This conflict has been marked by intense military responses from Israel, significant civilian casualties, and a prolonged state of war declared by Israel for the first time since the Yom Kippur War in 1973[2][4].
The October 7 attack led to more than 1,200 deaths, primarily Israeli citizens, and the capture of over 240 people as hostages. The subsequent military operations by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have caused widespread destruction in Gaza, with more than 43,000 Gazans killed and two-thirds of the buildings in the Gaza Strip damaged or destroyed by November 2024[2].
Key Stakeholder Positions
Israel
Israel's primary goals in the conflict include the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and a cessation of attacks from Gaza. The Israeli public is divided on the military response, with 39% believing it has been about right, 34% thinking it has not gone far enough, and 19% believing it has gone too far. There is significant concern among Israelis about the war expanding into other countries and its prolonged duration[5].
Hamas
Hamas's decision to launch the October 7 attack was not universally supported, even among Gazans. However, many Palestinians believe the attack brought international attention back to the Palestinian issue. Despite this, Hamas's popularity has declined in the region, which may have influenced their decision to agree to a ceasefire[1][2].
Palestinian Authority (PA)
The Palestinian Authority has seen an increase in support, particularly in the Gaza Strip, where there is a growing preference for PA control post-war. However, there is still significant opposition to PA control, especially in the West Bank. This shift in support could indicate a potential change in the internal balance of power among Palestinian factions[1].
Mediators (United States, Egypt, Qatar)
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar have played crucial roles in mediating the recent ceasefire agreement. Their involvement reflects the international community's desire to end the conflict and stabilize the region. Qatar, in particular, has been instrumental in coordinating the release of hostages and facilitating aid deliveries to Gaza[3].
Policy Implications
Hostage-Prisoner Exchange
The latest ceasefire deal includes a hostage-prisoner exchange where Israel will release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas. This is a critical component of the agreement, addressing a key concern for both sides. The specifics of the deal, confirmed by sources, outline the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel must release per freed captive[1][3].
Cessation of Attacks
The ceasefire will involve a pause in Israel's military operations in Gaza, aiming to reduce violence and stabilize the region. This cessation is crucial for alleviating the humanitarian crisis, allowing for the return of residents and the delivery of aid to the affected areas[3].
Return of Residents and Aid
The agreement facilitates the return of residents expelled from northern Gaza and includes provisions for an increase in aid to the territory. This addresses the immediate humanitarian needs, such as food, water, and medical supplies, which have been severely impacted during the conflict[3].
Long-term Stability
The deal may set a precedent for future negotiations and could pave the way for more comprehensive peace talks. While this remains speculative, the successful mediation and the current agreement could provide a foundation for more sustainable peace efforts in the region.
Public Reaction and Polling
Palestinian Public
There has been a significant drop in support for the October 7 attack and in expectations that Hamas will win the war. However, a majority still believes the attack brought the Palestinian issue back into international focus. There is also a rising support for the two-state solution and a preference for negotiations over armed struggle among Palestinians[1].
Israeli Public
Isrealis are divided on the military response, but there is a general concern about the war's expansion and duration. Confidence in achieving Israel's goals in the war is high, but so are concerns about the war's impact on civilian lives and the broader regional stability[5].
International Public
In the United States, public opinion is split along partisan lines, with Republicans more sympathetic to Israel and Democrats more divided. There is a general desire for a permanent ceasefire and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Globally, the conflict has sparked widespread protests and calls for humanitarian intervention, particularly in Western European countries[4].
International Relations Impact
Regional Stability
The ceasefire agreement could contribute to regional stability, reducing the risk of the conflict spreading to other countries. This is particularly important given the concerns among Israelis about the war's potential expansion and the involvement of other regional actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon[5].
International Mediation
The successful mediation by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar highlights the effectiveness of international diplomacy in resolving conflicts. This could set a positive precedent for future conflict resolution efforts in the region, demonstrating that coordinated international efforts can lead to tangible results[3].
Global Public Opinion
The agreement may influence global public opinion, particularly in the Arab world, where Hamas's popularity has been declining. It could also impact how other countries view the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and their roles in mediating peace. The international community's response to the conflict, including the UN General Assembly's call for a ceasefire, underscores the global desire for a peaceful resolution[4].
Future Political Scenarios
Short-term Peace
The immediate goal is to maintain the ceasefire and ensure the return of residents and the delivery of aid to Gaza. This could lead to a period of relative calm, allowing for further negotiations and the rebuilding of affected areas. The success of this short-term peace will be crucial in setting the stage for more long-term solutions[3].
Long-term Peace Talks
The success of this ceasefire could pave the way for more comprehensive peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. There is a growing support for the two-state solution among Palestinians, which could be a foundation for future negotiations. The involvement of international mediators and the current agreement may provide a framework for more sustained peace efforts[1].
Internal Palestinian Reconciliation
The agreement might also prompt internal Palestinian reconciliation efforts, given the shifting preferences for control in Gaza and the West Bank. This could lead to a more unified Palestinian leadership in future negotiations, potentially strengthening their bargaining position and facilitating more effective dialogue with Israel[1].
Regional Cooperation
The involvement of Egypt, Qatar, and the United States in mediating the ceasefire could foster greater regional cooperation on security and humanitarian issues. This cooperation could lead to a more stable Middle East, where regional actors work together to address common challenges and promote peace and stability[3].
In conclusion, the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict. While the road to lasting peace is long and fraught with challenges, the current agreement offers a glimmer of hope. As the international community continues to play a crucial role in mediating peace, the focus now shifts to maintaining the ceasefire, addressing humanitarian needs, and laying the groundwork for more comprehensive peace talks in the future.
