Political Context and Background
The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas marks a significant development in the ongoing Gaza-Israel conflict, which has been one of the most devastating and prolonged in recent history. The conflict, now in its 15th month, began with a cross-border attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of over 1,200 Israelis and the capture of 250 hostages. Israel's subsequent military response has led to the deaths of more than 46,000 Palestinians, the displacement of an estimated 90% of Gaza's population, and a severe humanitarian crisis[2][4].
This conflict is the fifth major escalation of the Gaza-Israel conflict since 2008 and is considered the most significant military engagement in the region since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The war has destabilized the broader Middle East and sparked worldwide protests[4].
Key Stakeholder Positions
Israel
The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has agreed to the ceasefire and hostage release deal. This agreement involves the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The decision to release Palestinian prisoners is seen as a moral obligation to return Israeli abductees, despite the heavy price of releasing individuals considered terrorists by Israel[2][4].
However, there is internal criticism within Israel regarding Netanyahu's handling of the negotiations. Many argue that the delay in reaching the agreement increased suffering and led to additional casualties. The Israeli public will likely experience mixed emotions with the release of hostages, including relief and renewed anger against Hamas and the Palestinians, which could harden Israeli views against a future two-state solution[2].
Hamas
Hamas has agreed to release hostages in phases, starting with thirty-three hostages (women, children, and those over fifty years of age) in the first phase. This is part of a broader deal that includes the release of Palestinian prisoners and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. Despite the agreement, Hamas's popularity has declined among many Arab publics, which may have influenced their decision to engage in negotiations[1].
Mediating Countries
The deal was mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt after weeks of intense negotiations. These countries played a crucial role in brokering the agreement and ensuring its implementation. The involvement of these mediators reflects the international community's efforts to bring an end to the devastating conflict and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza[2][4].
Policy Implications
Ceasefire and Hostage Exchange
The agreement involves a three-phase process. In the first phase, Hamas will release thirty-three hostages, and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel will also begin to withdraw from some areas and facilitate a significant increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza. Subsequent phases will involve the release of remaining male hostages and the return of deceased hostages. The final phase includes the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the beginning of reconstruction efforts[2][4].
Reconstruction and Governance
The deal does not address the long-term governance of Gaza, which remains a significant issue. There is concern that Hamas may continue to benefit from humanitarian aid without being responsible for governance, potentially freezing the conflict and maintaining a status quo that is detrimental to the civilian population. The absence of a clear governance structure for Gaza could hinder reconstruction efforts and perpetuate the humanitarian crisis[2].
Security Concerns
The agreement does not provide a clear path for long-term security, and there is a risk that the conflict could reignite if the underlying issues are not addressed. Israel's security concerns, particularly regarding the release of terrorists, remain a point of contention. The deal's success depends on its implementation over the next forty-two days, divided into three phases, and any failure to complete these phases as agreed upon could lead to a resumption of hostilities[2][4].
Public Reaction and Polling
Israeli Public
The release of hostages is expected to bring relief to the Israeli public but may also reignite anger against Hamas and the Palestinians. This could harden Israeli views against a future two-state solution. There is also criticism of Netanyahu's handling of the negotiations, with some questioning whether he adhered to Israel's social compact of going to any lengths to bring home captured citizens[2].
Palestinian Public
A majority of Gazans supported maintaining a ceasefire with Israel and were against breaking it. There is also support among Gazans for Hamas to stop calling for Israel’s destruction and accept a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders. The humanitarian relief provided by the ceasefire will be a welcome respite for the more than two million Palestinian civilians trapped in the conflict[1].
U.S. Public Opinion
The U.S. public has shown significant interest in the conflict, with a focus on recovering hostages and negotiating a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. There are partisan differences in sympathies towards Israelis and Palestinians, with Republicans and evangelical Christians more likely to sympathize with Israel. The incoming Trump administration's stance on the conflict, particularly its influence on Israeli security and potential actions against Iran, remains a critical factor in the region's dynamics[1].
International Relations Impact
Regional Normalization
The ceasefire agreement may impact regional normalization efforts, particularly between Israel and other Arab countries. While some countries may see this as an opportunity for further normalization, others may be more cautious due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The pace of normalization could be affected by regional perceptions of the conflict and the humanitarian situation in Gaza[2].
International Perception
The agreement and subsequent humanitarian efforts will be closely watched by the international community. The devastation in Gaza and the release of hostages will likely influence global public opinion and could affect diplomatic relations between involved parties and other nations. The visuals of the destruction and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza may have significant political repercussions, both within the region and globally[2][4].
Future Political Scenarios
Implementation and Stability
The success of the agreement depends on its implementation over the next forty-two days, divided into three phases. There is a risk of the deal collapsing if any phase is not completed as agreed upon. The extended time frame provides opportunities for opponents on both sides to undermine the agreement, a pattern seen in previous peace processes such as the Oslo Accords[1].
Two-State Solution
The agreement does not provide a clear path towards a two-state solution, which remains a contentious issue. Experts warn that the deal may freeze the conflict without addressing the underlying political issues, making a long-term resolution more challenging. The absence of a political horizon for Gaza's governance and reconstruction could perpetuate the status quo, which is detrimental to the civilian population[2].
Hamas's Role in Gaza
The deal does not change Hamas's control over Gaza, which is a significant concern for the long-term governance and stability of the region. Hamas's ability to benefit from humanitarian aid without governance responsibilities could perpetuate the status quo and hinder meaningful reconstruction efforts[2].
Israeli-Saudi Normalization
The agreement might influence Israel's normalization efforts with other Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. However, the pace of normalization could be affected by the ongoing humanitarian situation in Gaza and regional perceptions of the conflict. The new U.S. administration's stance, particularly under President-elect Donald Trump, will also play a crucial role in shaping these normalization efforts and broader regional dynamics[1].
In conclusion, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas offers a temporary respite from the devastating conflict but does not address the underlying issues that have led to this prolonged and deadly war. The success of the agreement hinges on its meticulous implementation and the ability of all parties involved to navigate the complex web of political, security, and humanitarian challenges. As the region moves forward, it is clear that the path to a lasting peace and a two-state solution remains fraught with obstacles, requiring sustained international effort and a commitment to addressing the deep-seated issues driving this conflict.
