The Gaza-Israel Conflict: Political Context, Stakeholder Positions, and Policy Implications
The Gaza-Israel conflict, a longstanding and volatile component of the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has escalated significantly since October 2023. This recent surge in violence is rooted in a complex web of historical, political, and social factors that have defined the region for decades.
Political Context and Background
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict dates back to the late 19th century, with the rise of Zionism and the subsequent colonization of Palestine. The 1948 Arab-Israeli War marked the establishment of the State of Israel, resulting in the displacement of approximately 700,000 to 800,000 Palestinian Arabs, an event known as the Nakba or "catastrophe" in Arabic[4].
The current conflict in Gaza intensified following a significant attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023. This attack, which involved a rocket barrage and the breach of the Gaza-Israel barrier by thousands of militants, resulted in the deaths of 1,195 Israelis and foreign nationals, including 815 civilians, and the capture of 251 hostages[1].
Since then, the conflict has seen severe violence, with Israel launching extensive air strikes and a ground invasion of Gaza. The Israeli military operations have led to over 46,000 Palestinian casualties, with more than half of these being women and children. The destruction in Gaza has been unprecedented, with entire cities leveled, and critical infrastructure such as healthcare systems, agricultural land, and educational facilities severely damaged[1].
Key Stakeholder Positions
Israeli Government
The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been under significant international and domestic pressure to de-escalate the conflict. Despite initial complications, the Israeli Cabinet approved a ceasefire deal, which includes the release of hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from various areas in Gaza.
"The decision to approve the ceasefire reflects the government's commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict while ensuring the safety and security of Israeli citizens," said a spokesperson for the Israeli government.
The Israeli justice ministry has outlined the release of 95 Palestinian prisoners in the first phase of the agreement, a move aimed at easing tensions and facilitating the return of hostages[3].
Hamas
Hamas, which has been significantly weakened by the recent conflict, may be more inclined to compromise. The ceasefire agreement includes the release of numerous Palestinian detainees and increased humanitarian assistance to Gaza, which could alleviate some of the pressure on Hamas.
"Hamas is ready to support a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders without recognizing Israel or ceding any rights," Hamas announced in 2017, indicating a potential willingness for compromise under certain conditions[2].
United States
The United States, particularly under the incoming Trump administration, has been a key player in pushing for a ceasefire and a hostage release deal. Trump has expressed a desire to achieve a deal in Gaza before his inauguration on January 20, 2025, to demonstrate his commitment to Arab and Muslim American voters.
"We are working tirelessly with our international partners to facilitate a ceasefire and ensure the safe return of hostages," said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken[5].
US officials are collaborating with other stakeholders, including Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire and post-conflict arrangements.
Other International Stakeholders
- Qatar and Egypt: These countries have been instrumental in mediating the ceasefire and are expected to continue playing roles in ensuring its implementation and providing humanitarian aid to Gaza[3][5].
- European Allies and Arab States: These stakeholders are generally supportive of a temporary ceasefire and the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern Gaza. They are also considering increased funding for the PA to support its role in Gaza[5].
Policy Implications
Ceasefire Agreement
The approved ceasefire will temporarily halt the 15-month conflict, allowing for the release of hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from various Gaza areas. This agreement includes a six-week initial phase during which 33 hostages are scheduled to be released.
- Hostage Release: The deal involves the release of hostages in phases, with the first phase including 33 hostages.
- Prisoner Release: The agreement includes the release of 95 Palestinian prisoners, including young people and women, in the first phase.
- Humanitarian Assistance: Increased humanitarian aid is promised for the severely damaged Gaza region, with aid convoys already assembled at Egypt's Rafah border crossing[3].
Border Operations
Israeli military and Shin Bet representatives are discussing border operations with Egyptian officials to ensure the smooth implementation of the ceasefire. This includes ensuring that all supplies of food, water, and fuel are allowed to enter Gaza, addressing the severe hunger crisis and humanitarian needs of the population[3].
Public Reaction and Polling
While specific polling data is not available, the decision to approve the ceasefire reflects growing public and international pressure on the Israeli government to find a peaceful resolution. The approval of the ceasefire during the Jewish Sabbath, despite traditional restrictions, highlights the critical nature of the decision and the urgency felt by both the government and the public.
International Relations Impact
US-Israel Relations
The involvement of the US in pushing for a ceasefire could strengthen US-Israel relations and demonstrate US commitment to resolving Middle East conflicts. Trump's efforts to achieve a deal in Gaza are also aimed at showing his attentiveness to the concerns of Arab and Muslim American voters, which could have broader implications for US relations with these communities[2].
Regional Dynamics
The ceasefire and potential return of the PA to Gaza could impact regional dynamics, especially given the weakening of the Iran-led “axis of resistance” following recent developments in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict has sparked increased regional tensions, with Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon engaging in cross-border skirmishes with the IDF, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels shooting missiles at Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea[5].
Future Political Scenarios
Post-Ceasefire Governance
The future governance of Gaza remains a contentious issue, with the Israeli government opposing the return of the PA as the governing authority. Despite this, the PA is gearing up to resume its role, and major Arab states are willing to support this move with funding and other resources.
"The return of the PA to Gaza is crucial for stabilizing the region and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid," said a spokesperson for the PA.
Long-term Ceasefire
The current ceasefire is temporary, and sustaining it will depend on various factors, including the willingness of both sides to compromise and the effectiveness of international mediation. The US and other stakeholders will likely continue to play a crucial role in maintaining the ceasefire and working towards a more permanent resolution.
Domestic Israeli Politics
The decision to approve the ceasefire may have implications for Netanyahu's government, particularly if the public perceives the move as a concession to Hamas. This could influence future political alignments and coalition dynamics within Israel.
"The government's decision to approve the ceasefire is a pragmatic step towards reducing violence, but it will face scrutiny from both domestic and international audiences," said an Israeli political analyst.
Conclusion
The Gaza-Israel conflict is a complex and deeply entrenched issue, with roots in decades of historical and political tensions. The recent ceasefire agreement, facilitated by international stakeholders, marks a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict. However, the success of this agreement will depend on the cooperation of various stakeholders, the sustainability of the ceasefire, and the resolution of long-term governance issues in Gaza.
As the region moves forward, it is crucial to address the underlying issues driving the conflict, including the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the status of Jerusalem, and the rights of Palestinian refugees. The international community must continue to play an active role in mediating a lasting peace, ensuring that the humanitarian needs of the affected populations are met, and working towards a two-state solution that respects the rights and aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians.
In the words of a UN official, "A lasting peace in the Middle East requires a commitment to justice, equality, and human rights. The current ceasefire is a step in the right direction, but it is only the beginning of a long and challenging journey towards peace and stability in the region."
