The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Deep-Rooted and Complex Territorial Dispute
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding and complex territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has been a significant source of instability in the South Caucasus region for decades. This conflict, with its roots in the early 20th century, has escalated significantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and has seen recent violent resurgences that have reshaped the region's political landscape.
Historical Context
To understand the current state of the conflict, it is essential to delve into its historical context. Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, has been predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians. This demographic reality has been a constant source of tension.
Early 20th Century
In 1921, following the occupation of Armenia and Azerbaijan by the Bolsheviks, Nagorno-Karabakh was declared an autonomous region within Soviet Azerbaijan. This decision was contested by the Armenian population, who made up about 94% of the enclave’s population. Despite these tensions, the Soviet Union managed to keep Armenian-Azeri tensions under control through its centralized governance[1].
Late Soviet Era
The situation began to unravel with Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s. The policies of glasnost and perestrovka emboldened the Karabakh Armenians, who began demanding the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Soviet Armenia. Mass demonstrations in 1987 and 1988, coupled with anti-Armenian violence in Sumgait and Kirovabad, marked the beginning of open conflict. The pogroms in Sumgait in February 1988, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of Armenians, were a particularly significant escalation[1][3].
Post-Soviet Era
As the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence. Azerbaijan abolished Nagorno-Karabakh’s autonomous status, fearing it would lead to the secession of the region. In response, the Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh declared the region’s independence in September 1991. This declaration was met with resistance from Azerbaijan, leading to a full-scale war between the two countries from 1991 to 1994. The war resulted in significant casualties, with around 30,000 people killed and hundreds of thousands displaced. The conflict ended with a ceasefire in 1994, but the region remained under Armenian control, with Armenian forces holding around 13% of Azerbaijani territory, including the former Soviet Autonomous Region of Nagorno-Karabakh and a buffer zone linking it to Armenia[1][2][5].
Latest Developments
Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
The most recent escalation of the conflict began in September 2020, with the outbreak of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This conflict was marked by significant military advancements by Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, and resulted in the capture of key districts such as Hadrut and Shushi. The war ended with a Russia-brokered ceasefire on November 9, 2020, which led to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh. This ceasefire agreement also included the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Agdam, Kelbajar, and Lachin, and the return of some territories to Azerbaijani control[2][4][5].
2023 Offensive
However, this stability was short-lived. On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched an "anti-terrorist" operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to Azerbaijan's full control over the region. This operation resulted in the dissolution of the Armenian separatist government, known as the Republic of Artsakh, and the displacement of around 100,000 ethnic Armenians. The Russian peacekeepers, who were stationed in the region as part of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, did not intervene in Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive, leading to accusations from Armenia that Russia had abandoned its obligations[1][3][5].
Key Facts and Analysis
Current Status
As of 2024, Azerbaijan has regained control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts, marking a significant shift in the region's political landscape. The dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh and the displacement of ethnic Armenians have created a humanitarian crisis, with many Armenians fleeing the region. The absence of Russian intervention during Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive has strained relations between Russia and Armenia, with Armenia considering distancing itself from Russia and seeking closer ties with Western countries[1][4][5].
Humanitarian Crisis
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh is a pressing issue. The displacement of ethnic Armenians and the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijani state-backed activists since December 2022 have exacerbated the situation. Despite orders from the International Court of Justice to lift the blockade, Azerbaijan has not complied, further complicating the humanitarian situation. Ensuring the provision of basic supplies and guaranteeing the rights and security of the remaining Armenian population are key challenges for any peace initiative[2][3].
Geopolitical Implications
The conflict has significant geopolitical implications. Armenia's move towards the West could result in a substantial geopolitical realignment in the region, potentially reducing Russia's dominance and introducing new dynamics. This shift could draw in Western powers and alter the regional balance of power. The involvement of Turkey in supporting Azerbaijan during the 2020 war has also added a new layer of complexity, highlighting the broader regional and international interests at play[3][4].
Expert Perspectives
Russia's Role
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed readiness to facilitate the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including helping with the delimitation and demarcation of the border and unblocking transborder routes. However, Armenia's dissatisfaction with Russia's handling of the conflict has led to accusations that Russia has abandoned its obligations.
"Russia's role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is complex and multifaceted. While Russia aims to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus, its failure to intervene in Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive has strained its relations with Armenia," said a geopolitical analyst.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has reiterated Moscow's willingness to assist in normalizing relations between the two countries, based on trilateral agreements from 2020 and 2022. However, Armenia's move towards the West could challenge Russia's traditional dominance in the region[1][4].
Azerbaijan's Position
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has expressed satisfaction with current Russian-Azerbaijani relations and has been engaged in talks with Putin regarding the peace process and other bilateral issues. Azerbaijan has declared its military victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and is involved in discussions over the reintegration of the region into Azerbaijan.
"Azerbaijan's military victory in Nagorno-Karabakh marks a significant milestone in our efforts to restore our territorial integrity," Aliyev stated during a press conference.
Armenia's Stance
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has accused Russia of failing to meet its obligations and has announced intentions to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and seek closer ties with the West and other countries to reduce dependence on Russia. Armenian lawmakers have expressed skepticism about Russia's intentions, suggesting that Russia's actions are anti-Armenian and aimed at furthering Azerbaijani interests[3][4].
Future Implications
Border Delimitation and Demarcation
Russia's offer to help with the delimitation and demarcation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border is crucial for establishing a stable peace. This process would involve using historical documents from the Soviet era to define the borders, a step that could pave the way for a lasting resolution. The precise demarcation of borders could help in reducing future conflicts and ensuring that both sides adhere to mutually agreed boundaries[1][4].
Unblocking Transborder Routes
Unblocking transborder routes is essential for economic and humanitarian reasons. It would facilitate the movement of goods and people between the two countries and alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. Ensuring the provision of basic supplies and guaranteeing the rights and security of the remaining Armenian population are key challenges for any peace initiative. The reopening of transportation links, as agreed upon by Aliyev and Pashinyan in talks with Putin, is a positive step but requires consistent implementation to be effective[2][5].
Humanitarian Efforts
Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh requires concerted efforts from all stakeholders, including Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Ensuring the well-being and security of the affected populations involves providing immediate aid, facilitating the return of displaced persons, and guaranteeing their rights under international law. International organizations and humanitarian agencies play a critical role in this process, and their involvement is essential for mitigating the suffering of the affected populations[2][3].
Geopolitical Realignment
Armenia's potential move towards the West could result in a significant geopolitical realignment in the region. This shift could reduce Russia's dominance and introduce new dynamics, potentially drawing in Western powers and altering the regional balance of power. The involvement of other regional actors, such as Turkey and Iran, could also be influenced by this realignment, adding complexity to the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus[3][4].
Conclusion
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a complex and deeply entrenched issue that has spanned decades. The recent developments, including Azerbaijan's military victory and the displacement of ethnic Armenians, have created a critical humanitarian situation. Russia's role in facilitating a peace treaty and normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains crucial, but its credibility as a mediator has been questioned.
As the region navigates this challenging landscape, the international community must focus on supporting humanitarian efforts, promoting border delimitation and demarcation, and unblocking transborder routes. The future of Nagorno-Karabakh and the stability of the South Caucasus depend on the ability of all stakeholders to work towards a lasting and equitable peace. This requires a commitment to dialogue, a willingness to compromise, and a strong international framework to support and enforce any agreements reached.
In the long term, resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will require addressing the underlying historical and ethnic tensions that have driven the conflict. This involves not only political and territorial arrangements but also efforts to rebuild trust and foster reconciliation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. The path to peace is fraught with challenges, but with sustained international support and a genuine commitment from all parties involved, it is possible to achieve a stable and lasting resolution to this longstanding conflict.
